A plan nobody tracks is a document. A plan with a budget and a forecast behind it is an operating system.

From the annual plan to the weekly number

Common questions

What is the difference between a budget and a forecast?

A budget is the commitment set before the year begins and it stays fixed so performance can be measured against it. A forecast is the current best estimate of how the year will actually finish and it changes as new information arrives. A business needs both: the budget to hold the standard, the forecast to make decisions.

Why is the cash forecast 13 weeks?

Thirteen weeks is one quarter, which is long enough to see a payroll cycle, a tax payment, a large receivable and a seasonal dip, and short enough to be forecast week by week with real accuracy. Beyond thirteen weeks estimates become assumptions, and inside four weeks there is rarely time left to act.

What is a driver-based budget?

A driver-based budget builds each line from the operational quantity that causes it: jobs per week, billable hours, average sale, headcount, utilisation rate. Because the drivers are visible, the leadership team can test scenarios directly, and a variance points to the operational cause rather than just the dollar gap.

How often should a business reforecast?

Reforecast the full-year profit and loss quarterly and roll the 13-week cash forecast weekly. Reforecasting monthly usually creates work without changing decisions, and reforecasting only at half year leaves too little of the year remaining to respond.

What should happen when the forecast turns out to be wrong?

A wrong forecast is information, not a failure. The useful step is to identify which driver moved rather than restating the total, correct the assumption inside the model, and note whether the miss was a timing difference or a permanent change. A forecast that is never wrong is usually being managed rather than made.

Who owns the numbers?

Each line of the budget is owned by the leader who controls the driver behind it, not by the accountant who assembles the file. Finance owns the integrity of the model and the calendar; the operating leaders own the assumptions and the variance explanations at the review.

Who should own cash flow in a growing business?

One named person, usually the finance lead or the operator, who updates the forecast weekly and reports it in the leadership meeting. They can delegate the work but not the accountability for cash.

How do I build a 13-week cash flow forecast in Excel?

Start with the opening bank balance, then list receipts by week from debtor due dates and expected sales, and payments by week: payroll, suppliers, rent, GST, PAYG and loan repayments. Each week replace the past week with actuals and add a new one.

My cash flow forecast shows a shortfall in six weeks. What should I do?

Act in the weeks before the low point: bring receipts forward, chase overdue debtors, stage or defer discretionary spend, agree terms with key suppliers and talk to your bank or adviser early. Weeks of warning give options that days do not.

Budget template or driver-based model: which should we use?

A template of last year plus a percentage is quick but explains little when results move. A driver-based model takes longer to build but shows why a variance happened and lets you test scenarios, which is usually worth it once a business has several leaders.

Do I need a CFO or a fractional COO to sort out budgeting and forecasting?

A CFO owns finance strategy, funding and statutory reporting. If the need is a working budget, a cash forecast and a rhythm where leaders answer for the numbers, an operator can install that, with your accountant keeping tax and compliance.